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stephenbrooks.org : Oil price speculation
stephenbrooks.orgForumTalkSensibleOil price speculation

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Stephen Brooks
2008-07-06 20:15:45
If you look at these graphs...

http://www.oilnergy.com/hpix/2obrentm.gif
http://www.oilnergy.com/hpix/1obrenty.gif

What do you see?  That increase is hyperbolic not exponential - the *time scales* of the increase are decreasing exponentially.  We're at +$10/month now, a year ago it was +$10/quarter, then in '03-'06 it was about +$10/year.

If I had to guess, I think oil will peak in December 2008 at between $200 and $225. In the 2009-2011 period it will be volatile ranging mostly between $60-$160. I'm interested to see if my prediction is any good.
tgkprog
2008-08-11 02:23:47
it looks like it in control for now
Stephen Brooks
2008-09-02 17:04:36
Yep, peaked at $147 and fell right back down just in the last month or so.
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