stephenbrooks.orgForumMuon1Generalprobability of calculating a good result?
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wirthi [Free-DC]
2003-04-15 08:01:06

Is it possible to calculate the probability of reaching a good result?

Like creating a formula f(x) that calculates the muon transfer you should have reached after x calculations (when starting with an empty result.dat and not adding other results from other computers to that file).

For example, I have calculated about 350 results and reached a muon transfer of about 1.5%. I'd like to know now if that's good or bad.

Any math geek able to do that (or has already done that?)

Christian Wirth
Stephen Brooks
2003-04-17 14:02:51
It'll actually vary rather a lot (and in theory the distribution is hard to calculate exactly).  For an empirical approximation look at the rawstats.txt file and you can see the percentages against the number of results people have sent in, and plotting those against each other should give you a rought idea.

(Or not.  I suspect the graph will look like a massive fuzz because there's a lot of luck involved).

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